My academic research is in the area Machine Learning, Political Economy, Development Economics and Conflict Studies. Most of my work is applied work which uses quantitative data to analyze questions relevant for policy making. Below is a chronological list of my published and working papers.

All
Research
Policy Reports

2023 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model Policy Report

FCDO / with Alexandra Malaga, Christopher Rauh, Alessandro Ruggieri and Benjamin Seimon.

2023 - Conflict, Social Unrest and Policy Uncertainty Measures are Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting

Working Paper / joint with Marina Diakonova, Luis Molina, Javier J. Perez and Cristopher Rauh

2022 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model

Working Paper / joint with Christopher Rauh and Alessandro Ruggieri

2022 - Using Past Violence and Current News to Predict Changes in Violence

International Interactions, 48:4, 579-596 / joint with Christopher Rauh

2022 - Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"

Forthcoming in Journal of Economic History. / (joint with Sandra García-Uribe and Carlos Sanz)

2022 - The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

Journal of the European Economic Association, 20 (6) / joint with Christopher Rauh

2021 - Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility

Book chapter in manual by Ralph Chami Raphael Espinoza Peter J. Montiel on Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States / joint with Tim Besley

2021 - Monitoring War Destruction from Space Using Machine Learning

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (23) / joint with Andre Groeger, Jonathan Hersh, Andrea Matranga and Joan Serrat

2021 - Ethnic Violence Across Space

Economic Journal / joint with Dominic Rohner and David Schönholzer

2021 - How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data

Working Paper / joint with Tim Besley and Thiemo Fetzer

2020 - Conflict and Poverty

World Bank / joint with Chanon Techasunthornwat

2020 - Executive Constraints and Institutional Robustness

Working Paper / joint with Tim Besley

2020 - Forecasting and Nowcasting Political Risk Around the World

Banco de España / joint with Christopher Rauh

2019 - ¿El desempleo daña la salud mental?

Observatori la Caixa / joint with Lidia Farre and Francesco Fasani. Special thanks to Michele Catanzaro.

2019 - Quality of Institutions and Structural Transformation

UN/ECA / joint with Zoubir Benhamouche, Bruno Conte Leite and Thiemo Fetzer

2018 - Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland

Economic Policy, 33(95), pp. 447–484. / joint with Dominic Rohner

2018 - Institutions, Volatility and Investment

Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3), pp. 604-649. / joint with Timothy Besley

Papers and projects

2023 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model Policy Report

2023 - Conflict, Social Unrest and Policy Uncertainty Measures are Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting

2022 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model

2022 - Using Past Violence and Current News to Predict Changes in Violence

2022 - Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"

2022 - The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

2021 - Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility

2021 - Monitoring War Destruction from Space Using Machine Learning

2021 - Ethnic Violence Across Space

2021 - How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data

2020 - Conflict and Poverty

2020 - Executive Constraints and Institutional Robustness

2020 - Forecasting and Nowcasting Political Risk Around the World

2019 - ¿El desempleo daña la salud mental?

2019 - Quality of Institutions and Structural Transformation

2018 - Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland

2018 - Institutions, Volatility and Investment

2018 - Predation, Protection and Productivity: A Firm-Level Perspective

2018 - Feeling Useless: the Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health in the Great Recession

2018 - Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text

2017 - How Much Is Prevention Worth?

2017 - Recovery from Conflict: Lessons of Success

2016 - Growth and Violence: Argument for a Per Capita Measure of Civil War

2015 - Cultural Leaders and the Clash of Civilizations

2015 - The Welfare Cost of Lawlessness: Evidence from Somali Piracy

2015 - Insulation or Patronage: Political Institutions and Bureaucratic Efficiency

2015 - Primaries: The Unifying Force

2012 - Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

2012 - Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery: Comment

2011 - Thanks for Nothing? Not-for-Profits, Labor Donations, and Motivated Agents

Hannes Felix Mueller

Research

THINGS I DO

Academic Research

Teaching

Policy Reports